What's on the Menu for the Proxy War in Syria?

The Obama administration has decided to authorize additional assistance to rebels fighting the Assad regime in Syria. The civil war there has claimed nearly 100,000 lives already, and the rebels have lost key ground to the regime and their allies, fighters with Iranian-backed terror group Hezbollah.

The United States has already provided nonlethal aid, such as medical supplies and communications equipment, but will now provide weapons. Details are lacking?the debate is being waged behind closed doors in Washington, D.C., and Virginia.

But the Syrian rebels are a mixed bag, ideologically speaking, with many of them part of an al-Qaida-linked group. That makes it very hard to arm Syrian rebels without also outfitting terrorists who could aim these same weapons at allies, civilians, or U.S. troops in the region.

So what are the rebels asking for? And will they get it? Here's a list of their requests and the chances of getting them.

Anti-Tank Missiles

Why They Want Them: Tanks, once thought to be sitting ducks on city streets, have earned a place in urban combat. In Syria, government tanks have been instrumental and tenacious foes. Infantry hiding in buildings are prey to a tank's main gun and heavy machine guns. Russia has been supplying Syria with heavy armor since the Cold War, and the machines have been upgraded. These days the Assad regime operates T-72M1s, which have better armor, thermal imagers, and laser rangefinders.

Impact: Significant. A tank with modern armor can withstand multiple rocket-propelled grenade attacks. Always take released battlefield video with a grain of salt, but this one seems to show a Syrian army tank withstanding multiple attacks by small, line-of-sight, rocket propelled grenades.

Now, compare that video with this one of a U.S. Javelin exterminating a Russian-made tank.

It doesn't take Norman Schwarzkopf to tell which is more effective?or safer to use at a distance.

Chance of Getting Them: Good. Antitank weapons are valuable on the black market, which is a worry in terms of proliferation in the hands of terrorists. But in Syria, these weapons could turn the tide in favor of rebel infantry who face heavy armor. The very presence of these high-tech weapons will force the Syrian army to be very careful when attacking and holding territory.

Note: There could also be a supply of antitank mines, which are better than missiles when it comes to disabling tanks and setting up ambushes on city streets. In an interview with ANNA television, one Syrian tank operator says that mine explosions disable tanks, and force them to be transported for repairs. This takes a toll on the war effort, and also opens up more chances to attack the tank and transport crews.

Assault Rifles

Why They Want Them: The Free Syrian Army is reliant on infantry. Arming them with modern, high-power rifles with better accuracy and range makes them more capable. Also, as opposed to other assault rifles such as the ubiquitous AK-47, western weapons are designed for accurate shooting by well-trained personnel. (Well-trained hopefully means under some government control.) Those attributes make them less appealing to terrorist recruits and militias.

Chance of Getting Them: Very good.

Impact: Minimal. The Free Syrian Army already gets light arms from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and spokesmen for the group have said such supplies are "meaningless." These nations have imported Yugoslav-made assault rifles and machine guns for Syrian rebel use.

Note: Modern body armor with protective ceramic plates could also help safeguard infantry and would likely be welcome. But the Syrian rebels are looking for game-changing gear to counter the most severe regime weapons, not marginal nonlethal gear.

Anti-Aircraft Missiles

Why They Want Them: "We would like to see sophisticated weapons to bring down any aircraft and to deter this regime from bombarding the urban and civilian areas," Walid Safur, the British representative of the opposition Syrian National Coalition told the BBC. Airstrikes and helicopter gunships have ravaged the rebels, and they provide a real edge to government forces.

Impact: Introducing man-portable antiaircraft weapons to Syrian rebels could be a game-changer. Being able to shoot back at aircraft, rather than just hide from them, would enable the rebels to become mobile and perform concentrated attacks.

Chance of Getting Them: Not good. Handing over this potent, portable weapon to a war zone is terrible national security policy. These missiles have shelf lives?luckily the systems we gave the mujahedeen to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan are out of batteries?but the damage they can do to civilian airliners and helicopters makes them too lethal for wide distribution.

The bad news is that the Syrian rebels may already be getting these weapons from outside sources. Rebel fighters claiming to be part of the Al Asala Watanmia Front are seen in a recent video holding four different types of antiaircraft missiles. Two are older models, but two are newer systems made by Russia and China. "Never have I seen the two systems together, anywhere," says Matt Schroeder, analyst with Small Arms Survey and Federation of American Scientists.

Note: The only real solution to end the Assad regime's advantage is a no-fly zone. In Libya a no-fly zone halted that government's advance on rebels and quickly became an agent of regime change. But, a no-fly-zone announcement could inspire Russia to finish shipping modern antiaircraft weapons to Syria in response.

Source: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/weapons/whats-on-the-menu-for-syrias-proxy-war-15589551?src=rss

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